NFL Week 13 Games
Game Analysis
Key Matchups
- Packers pass offense vs. Lions secondary: Jordan Love has led a balanced but efficient attack (about 223 passing yards per game, 7.7 yards per attempt, positive turnover margin), and faces a Detroit back end that has been more vulnerable than its run defense and is missing ball-hawking safety Kerby Joseph.(en.wikipedia.org) If Green Bay leans into the pass, they can stress Detroit’s depth at corner and safety, especially with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs likely forcing a higher-scoring script.
- Lions run game (Jahmyr Gibbs) vs. Packers front seven: The Packers come in with a top-10 rush defense (under 100 rush yards allowed per game) and already held Gibbs to his least efficient outing in the Week 1 meeting, but Gibbs has since broken out and is coming off an explosive 200+ rushing-yard performance.(en.wikipedia.org) Whether Detroit can get him going on early downs against a Micah Parsons–led front will heavily shape Detroit’s ability to stay on schedule and protect Jared Goff.
Prediction
Green Bay’s more complete, healthier defense and a surging Jordan Love passing game give the Packers a slight edge in what profiles as a moderately high-scoring, back-and-forth contest. I expect Green Bay to win a tight one on the road by making a few more explosive plays and getting one or two key red-zone stops.
Score Projection
| Team | Projected Score |
|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 27 |
| Detroit Lions | 24 |
Summary
Through November 23, Green Bay has quietly posted top‑five marks in total defense, pass defense, rush defense, and points allowed, while fielding a league-average to slightly above-average offense—an unusually balanced profile compared with Detroit’s more offense-tilted identity.(en.wikipedia.org) The Lions offense is dangerous, especially with Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon‑Ra St. Brown both in form, but their recent pattern of narrow games and defensive inconsistency (alternating wins and losses over the last six, including an overtime escape vs. the Giants) suggests volatility.(statsalt.com) Detroit’s offensive line is banged up (Graham Glasgow out and multiple linemen questionable), which is a concern against Micah Parsons and a strong Packers front, even if tackles Penei Sewell and Taylor Decker can mostly hold up on the edges.(prideofdetroit.com) On the other side, Josh Jacobs is cleared to return, and Love is playing at a legitimately high level by EPA and efficiency, with Detroit’s secondary not at full strength.(packers.com) The betting market and standings frame this as close to a coin flip with Detroit a small home favorite, but when weighting current defensive efficiency, injury situations, and quarterback form, the data tilts slightly toward Green Bay pulling the upset.
Player Performance Predictions
For popular betting stats and props, these are approximate median projections (not betting advice), assuming current injury reports hold (players listed as out are excluded, and “questionable” players are given partial workloads).
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Jordan Love (Green Bay Packers): ~25/37, 265 passing yards, 2 TD, 0–1 INT; 3–4 rushes for 15 yards. Love has been efficient and aggressive, and Detroit’s secondary is missing Kerby Joseph and has allowed chunk plays; a game total near 48–49 and Green Bay’s willingness to pass suggest mid‑260s passing yards with multiple scores.(prideofdetroit.com)
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Josh Jacobs (Green Bay Packers): 17–19 carries, 72 rushing yards, 0.5 TD; 2 receptions, 12 yards. Jacobs returns without a game designation after missing Week 12, and Green Bay has leaned on him heavily in the red zone (team‑leading 11 rush TDs), but Detroit’s top‑10 run defense and likely pass‑heavier script cap his yardage while preserving strong TD equity.(en.wikipedia.org)
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Romeo Doubs (Green Bay Packers): 6 receptions on 9 targets, 68 yards, 0.5 TD. As Green Bay’s reception and yardage leader and a primary red‑zone option, Doubs should remain Love’s high‑volume, intermediate target against a Lions secondary that may be forced into more zone and depth pieces due to injuries and roster churn.(en.wikipedia.org)
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Jared Goff (Detroit Lions): ~24/35, 255 passing yards, 1–2 TD, 1 INT. Goff is efficient indoors and gets to lean on St. Brown and Gibbs underneath, but a top‑five Packers pass defense and pass rush led by Parsons should generate some pressure and at least one turnover while still allowing yardage in a likely neutral-to-fast script.(en.wikipedia.org)
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Jahmyr Gibbs (Detroit Lions): 15 carries, 88 rushing yards, 0.5 rush TD; 6 receptions, 45 yards, 0.3 rec TD. Gibbs’ recent explosion (219 rushing yards and 45 receiving yards vs. the Giants) underscores his big‑play upside and heavy dual‑threat usage, but Green Bay’s strong run defense and prior success bottling him up suggest more modest efficiency with volume-driven totals and high PPR-style production.(statsalt.com)
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Amon‑Ra St. Brown (Detroit Lions): 8 receptions on 11 targets, 92 yards, 0.5 TD. St. Brown continues to be a target magnet (13 targets, 149 yards and a TD last week), and in a game where Detroit may need quick passing to mitigate pass rush and compensate for O‑line injuries, his short‑to‑intermediate role should translate into double‑digit targets and high‑80s to low‑90s yardage outcomes.(statsalt.com)
Game Analysis
Key Matchups
- Chiefs passing attack vs. Cowboys secondary: Patrick Mahomes has been up‑and‑down but still leads an offense that skews heavily pass-first, with Travis Kelce plus a now-healthier receiver group (Rashee Rice and rookie Xavier Worthy both practicing fully). Dallas no longer has Micah Parsons and has been more vulnerable on the back end, leaning on DaRon Bland (coming off a wrist issue) and a young corner group that has given up explosive plays in several recent games. (en.wikipedia.org)
- Cowboys offensive line vs. Chiefs pass rush: Dallas is down starting tackle Tyler Guyton, forcing Nate Thomas into the lineup against a Chiefs front that has leaned on pressure to compensate for inconsistent offense. With Chris Jones and a multiple blitz package, Kansas City has been able to disrupt even solid quarterbacks, and any protection slippage for Dak Prescott raises the risk of drive‑killing sacks and turnovers. (bloggingtheboys.com)
Prediction
Kansas City’s slightly more efficient overall profile, healthier skill group, and pass‑rush advantage tilt a high‑variance, relatively high‑scoring game in their favor, but Dallas’ home field and weapons keep it close. I expect the Chiefs to win a one‑score game where both quarterbacks move the ball but Kansas City finishes drives a bit better.
Score Projection
| Team | Projected Score |
|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 27 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 23 |
Summary
Market consensus has Kansas City as a small road favorite (roughly -3.5, total around 51–52), aligning with a matchup where the Chiefs are modestly stronger by the numbers but far from dominant. (foxsports.com) The Chiefs sit at 6–5, with recent inconsistency but an offense that should benefit from the return of Isiah Pacheco and full participation from Rice and Worthy. (the-sun.com) Dallas at 5–5–1 has stabilized under Brian Schottenheimer and leans on Dak Prescott and George Pickens to generate chunk plays, but the loss of long‑time trench anchors (Zack Martin, DeMarcus Lawrence, Micah Parsons) has eroded their line‑of‑scrimmage edge. (en.wikipedia.org) With Tyler Guyton out and the Chiefs’ front healthy, the pressure matchup slightly favors Kansas City, especially if Dallas is forced into pass‑heavy scripts. Given the close statistical gap, home field and variance make this closer to a 60/40 than a lock, but the data still points to the Chiefs as the more likely winner in a 24–30 point range for each side.
Player Performance Predictions
For popular betting stats and props, these are approximate, median‑type projections based on 2025 usage, efficiency, and matchup context (not guarantees):
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Dak Prescott (Dallas Cowboys): 25–38 passing, 265–285 yards, 1.5 passing TDs (project: 2 TD, 1 INT), 10–20 rushing yards. Dallas has been leaning pass‑heavy in neutral game states, and Prescott has produced efficient yardage at home, but the weakened O‑line and Chiefs pressure slightly cap ceiling and add interception risk.
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George Pickens (Dallas Cowboys): 6–8 receptions, 80–95 receiving yards, 0.5 TD (project: 6/88/1). Pickens has settled in as a clear WR1 in this offense, commanding strong target share in recent weeks, and Kansas City’s scheme often concedes intermediate outside routes while focusing resources inside on tight ends and backs. (nbcsports.com)
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Tony Pollard (Dallas Cowboys): 13–16 carries, 55–70 rushing yards, 3–4 receptions for 20–30 yards, 0–1 TD (project: 0.5 total TD). Dallas has used a committee at times, but on a short week they are likely to lean on Pollard’s versatility, even if game script pulls some volume into the passing game.
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Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs): 26–37 passing, 285–305 yards, 2 passing TDs, 0–1 INT, plus 10–20 rushing yards. Even in an erratic season, Mahomes’ volume plus Dallas’ inconsistent pass rush without Parsons sets up for strong yardage; the main downside is red‑zone execution, which has occasionally stalled this year. (en.wikipedia.org)
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Travis Kelce (Kansas City Chiefs): 7–9 receptions, 80–95 yards, 0.5 TD (project: 7/88/1). Kelce remains Mahomes’ most trusted option in high‑leverage downs, and Dallas’ linebackers/safeties have been more attack‑than‑cover oriented, making underneath and seam routes a consistent chain‑moving outlet.
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Rashee Rice (Kansas City Chiefs): 5–7 receptions, 60–75 yards, 0–1 TD (project: 6/68/0). With his hamstring now off the injury report and usage trending up, Rice profiles as the primary volume WR on in‑breaking and YAC routes against Dallas’ corners. (bloggingtheboys.com)
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Isiah Pacheco (Kansas City Chiefs): 11–14 carries, 50–65 rushing yards, 2–3 receptions for 15–25 yards, 0–1 TD (project: 0.5 TD). Reports suggest Pacheco returns in a “limited capacity,” so Kareem Hunt likely retains a meaningful slice of touches, but Pacheco’s efficiency (around 4.2 YPC pre‑injury) makes him a strong bet for solid but not elite production. (the-sun.com)
Game Analysis
Key Matchups
- Joe Burrow & Ja’Marr Chase vs. Ravens pass rush/coverage: Burrow is back from IR and expected to start, with Chase returning from suspension but Tee Higgins out and a porous line that’s allowed 24 sacks and helped produce a -7 turnover margin.(reuters.com) Baltimore’s defense hasn’t been elite all year, but at home in a loud environment, their rush and disguised coverages are well-positioned to pressure a rusty QB and force mistakes.
- Ravens run game (Derrick Henry, Lamar Jackson) vs. Bengals run defense: Baltimore has leaned on Henry heavily during their five-game win streak and has complemented that with Lamar’s option threat, while Cincinnati brings in a defense ranked 32nd in the league and consistently gashed on the ground.(baltimorebeatdown.com) Sustained rushing success will control tempo, keep Burrow on the sideline, and set up play‑action shots to Zay Flowers and others.
Prediction
Baltimore’s healthier, in form, and at home, while Cincinnati is re-integrating Burrow behind a struggling defense; expect the Ravens to control the game on the ground and with situational defense. I project a moderately high‑scoring contest where the Bengals’ offense shows life but can’t fully overcome defensive leaks and pass‑protection issues.
Score Projection
| Team | Projected Score |
|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals | 23 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 30 |
Summary
Baltimore enters 6–5 on a five‑game win streak, buoyed by a resurgent defense and a run‑centric attack with Derrick Henry and a banged‑up but active Lamar Jackson, who is playing through a toe injury.(reuters.com) Cincinnati, at 3–8 with the league’s 32nd‑ranked defense and a -7 turnover differential, welcomes Joe Burrow back from turf‑toe IR in what amounts to a must‑win spot, but they’re also without key pieces like Tee Higgins and edge rusher Trey Hendrickson.(reuters.com) The Bengals’ offense should get an immediate bump with Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase reunited, yet pass protection and offensive rhythm are real concerns against a Ravens unit that has recently stifled opponents like the Jets, Vikings, and Dolphins.(baltimorebeatdown.com) Home‑field advantage on a short week, plus Baltimore’s continuity and ground‑game edge, tilt the probabilities clearly in the Ravens’ favor, even if Burrow’s presence narrows the gap. The betting market reflecting Ravens -6.5/-7 aligns with the data, and I see the most likely script as Baltimore leading most of the way with Cincinnati trading scores but rarely in full control.(oddscrowd.com)
Player Performance Predictions
For popular betting stats and props, these are approximate median‑type projections, not ceiling outcomes:
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Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens): 20/30 passing, 215 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; 8 rushes, 38 yards. Toe, knee, and ankle issues plus recent modest passing totals (no 200‑yard games and just 1 TD vs 2 INTs over his last three, despite a 5‑game win streak) suggest Baltimore continues to lean run‑heavy and ask him to manage more than carry the offense.(reuters.com)
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Derrick Henry (Baltimore Ravens): 19 carries, 88 rushing yards, 1.0 rushing TD; 1–2 receptions, ~8 receiving yards. Henry has been the finisher for Baltimore’s recent wins, and against a Bengals defense that has struggled all year and is missing top edge Trey Hendrickson, he’s well‑positioned for solid volume and red‑zone work.(baltimorebeatdown.com)
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Zay Flowers (Baltimore Ravens): 5 receptions on 7 targets, 62 yards, 0.5 TD. Flowers has been a key explosive element in this passing game, and with Cincinnati’s secondary weakened and likely focused on the run, he profiles as Jackson’s primary downfield and intermediate option.(en.wikipedia.org)
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Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals): 27/41 passing, 275 yards, 2 TDs, 1–2 INT; 1–2 rushes, <10 yards. Burrow is an accomplished passer (over 19,000 career yards and 142 TDs) but is coming off a lengthy layoff and draws a tough road environment; volume should be high chasing points, but some rust and pressure‑induced mistakes are likely.(reuters.com)
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Ja’Marr Chase (Cincinnati Bengals): 7 receptions on 11 targets, 92 yards, 0.8 TD. With Higgins out and Burrow back, target concentration should swing heavily toward Chase, who has historically produced big games versus Baltimore and will be used at all depths to jump‑start the offense.(cincyjungle.com)
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Primary Bengals RB (e.g., Chase Brown/Samaje Perine mix): Combined 16 carries, 62 rushing yards; 5 receptions, 32 receiving yards. Cincinnati’s run game has been mediocre behind an offense leaning more on the pass, and game script likely forces them into more check‑downs and two‑minute usage than sustained rushing volume.(bengals.com)
Game Analysis
Key Matchups
- Bears rushing attack vs. Eagles run defense: Chicago enters Week 13 with one of the league’s best ground games (142.3 rushing yards per game, 2nd in NFL) behind a top-5 pass-pro/run-blocking line and a mobile rookie QB, Caleb Williams. (sports.yahoo.com) Philadelphia’s front, led by Jalen Carter, Jordan Davis and a surging Moro Ojomo, has been stout overall and is coming off a multi-week stretch of holding opponents in check on the scoreboard, so whoever wins early downs here will dictate tempo. (bleedinggreennation.com)
- Eagles ball security & red-zone efficiency vs. Bears takeaway-heavy defense: The Bears lead the NFL in takeaways (24) and are particularly dangerous in coverage, with a league-high interception total and potentially getting CBs Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon back from IR. (sports.yahoo.com) The Eagles, conversely, have only four turnovers all season and own one of the NFL’s best red-zone completion rates, a strength that can blunt Chicago’s bend-but-break defense if they continue to protect the ball. (foxsports.com)
Prediction
Philadelphia’s more complete roster, home-field advantage, and elite ball security tilt a close, physical contest in their favor, but Chicago’s explosive, balanced offense and opportunistic defense should keep it competitive for four quarters in a moderate-scoring game.
Score Projection
| Team | Projected Score |
|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 21 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 27 |
Summary
Both teams enter at 8–3 with top-tier overall profiles, but the underlying metrics suggest different styles: Chicago is an explosive, run-heavy offense with a leaky but turnover-hungry defense, while Philadelphia is more balanced and mistake-averse on offense with a defense trending upward. (sports.yahoo.com) The Bears’ offense averages 369.6 yards and 26.3 points per game, ranking top-10 in both yardage and scoring, and has protected Caleb Williams well (only 17 sacks allowed) while also ranking top-3 in fewest offensive turnovers. (sports.yahoo.com) However, Chicago’s defense ranks bottom-five in yards allowed and rushing yards allowed, and is missing key front-seven pieces like Tremaine Edmunds and Dayo Odeyingbo, which makes them vulnerable to Saquon Barkley and the Eagles run game despite their elite takeaway rate. (sports.yahoo.com)
On the other side, the Eagles’ offense, led by Jalen Hurts (2,284 passing yards, 16 TD, 1 INT), has been efficient if not explosive lately and benefits from outstanding field-position and turnover margins; they’ve committed a league-low four turnovers, a critical counter to Chicago’s ball-hawking secondary. (espn.com) Injury-wise, the Bears may get a significant secondary boost if Johnson and Gordon do in fact return from IR, but their linebacker depth remains stressed, while Philadelphia’s injury report is relatively light, with several key players (e.g., Saquon Barkley, Landon Dickerson) practicing in at least a limited capacity. (sports.yahoo.com) Factoring in the short week, road environment, and the Eagles’ superior defensive consistency and ball security, the data points to the Eagles as a clear but not overwhelming favorite in the one-score range rather than a blowout.
Player Performance Predictions
For popular betting stats and props, these are data-driven, approximate projections assuming current injury trajectories hold (i.e., questionable players with full practices are expected to play limited-to-normal snaps).
- Jalen Hurts (Philadelphia Eagles): 235–255 passing yards, 1.5–2 passing TDs, 0–1 INT; 30–40 rushing yards. Chicago’s pass defense is middle of the pack in yardage but vulnerable in the intermediate areas and red zone, and while they generate interceptions at a high rate, Hurts’ season-long turnover profile (1 INT, 4 total turnovers for the team) suggests only a modest interception risk over average volume. (sports.yahoo.com)
- Saquon Barkley (Philadelphia Eagles): 75–90 rushing yards, 3–4 receptions for 25–35 receiving yards, 0.5–1 total TDs. The Bears are allowing 138.1 rushing yards per game (28th), are thin at linebacker with Edmunds on IR and several others banged up, and have struggled to tackle consistently, making Barkley a strong candidate for efficient volume on the ground plus check-down work. (sports.yahoo.com)
- DeVonta Smith (Philadelphia Eagles): 60–75 receiving yards on 5–7 catches, 0.3–0.5 TDs. If he suits up through his shoulder/chest issue, his route versatility makes him a high-percentage target against Chicago’s zone-heavy looks; potential returns of Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon would cap his ceiling slightly but should still allow solid volume, especially on third downs and in the red area. (espn.com)
- Caleb Williams (Chicago Bears): 245–265 passing yards, 1.5–2 passing TDs, 0.5–1 INT; 25–35 rushing yards. Williams has already surpassed 2,300 passing yards with 13–16 TDs (depending on stat cutoffs) and has handled pressure well, but faces one of his tougher fronts yet; expect moderate yardage boosted by late-game passing volume in a trailing script with some designed runs and scrambles. (windycitygridiron.com)
- D’Andre Swift (Chicago Bears): 55–70 rushing yards on 12–16 carries, 3–4 receptions for 20–30 receiving yards, 0–1 TDs. Swift has 649 rushing yards on the season and is central to Chicago’s 2nd-ranked rushing attack; against a physical but occasionally gap-volatile Eagles front, he should see solid but not dominant efficiency, sharing some rushing value with Williams and Monangai. (downbeach.com)
- Rome Odunze (Chicago Bears): 65–80 receiving yards on 5–7 receptions, 0.5 TDs. Odunze leads Chicago with around 600–650 receiving yards and six scores, operating as Williams’ primary explosive-option; in a game where Chicago may chase in the second half, his target share and deep/intermediate role point to a strong yardage floor even versus a capable Eagles secondary. (downbeach.com)
